AP analysis: Hardest-hit areas recovering slowly

Yuma County is the second most economically stressed county in the nation, accordng to a report released Monday by The Associated Press that looked at unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcies to arrive at that conclusion.

It lagged behind only Imperial County, Calif., according to The AP Economic Stress Index for September, which gave the neighboring county a score of 33.51.

That compares to Yuma County's score of 25.82 percent, based on an unemployment rate of 24.2 percent, foreclosure rate of 1.35 percent and bankruptcy rate of .80 percent for September.

The report doesn't sit well with Julie Engel, president and CEO of Greater Yuma Economic Development Corp.

"They just look at statistics and base their whole assumption around that," she said. "It grossly misrepresents the area. They do so little research. They never call us."

She continued: "Our unemployment numbers are so inflated with our seasonal workers. We're not as distressed as the numbers would indicate."

The economic recovery is proceeding unevenly in its early stages, with areas hurt most by the housing slump still lagging behind other regions, according to The Associated Press’ monthly analysis of economic stress in more than 3,100 U.S. counties.

Counties in the Southeast, the industrial Midwest and the Southwest are still struggling and have made the least improvement, the analysis of September data found. The northern half of the nation is stabilizing or improving faster than the southern half. Northern counties generally didn’t suffer as much from the housing bust.

The government said last week that the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, ending four straight quarters of decline. But that growth is expected to slow as government stimulus programs wind down.

The AP’s Economic Stress Index calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on a county’s unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. Under a rough rule of thumb, a county is considered stressed when its score exceeds 11.

Nationwide, the average county’s stress score dipped to 10.1 in September from 10.3 in August, helped by a steadying of foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. In September 2008, the average county stress score was much lower: 6.73.

The highest stress scores were still found mainly in states that endured housing booms and busts. Nevada had the highest score, 21.95, followed by Michigan, with its battered auto industry, at 17.75. California was next, at 16.2, followed by Florida, 15.4, and Arizona, 14.26.

States with the lowest stress scores in September were North Dakota (4.07), South Dakota (5.01), Nebraska (5.71), Montana (6.6) and Wyoming (6.9).

‘‘Housing still is at the epicenter of this crisis around the country, and places where the cycle was most egregious are also now places that are seeing some of the highest rates of unemployment,’’ said Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida.

Midwestern and Plains states such as Oklahoma, Nebraska, North Dakota and Iowa avoided the worst of the housing and financial crises. And Oklahoma and North Dakota have recently benefited from rising oil prices. The region also has been helped by a weaker dollar, which has made agricultural commodities cheaper for foreigners to buy.

Areas of the Northeast, such as Pennsylvania and upstate New York, are benefiting from economically stable industries like higher education and health care. Those are the two industries that have added jobs during the recession.

Pittsburgh, for example, is no longer an old-line industrial city. The city’s largest employers are the University of Pittsburgh’s Health Center and the West Penn Allegheny Health System, a network of hospitals, noted Steve Cochrane, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com.

That’s in contrast to much of neighboring Ohio, which still has auto-related manufacturing that has been hit hard by the downturn, Cochrane said. In September, Ohio suffered from a stress score of 12.48, while Pennsylvania’s was only 9.49.

About 36 percent of counties in September had a score of 11 or higher, down from 39 percent of counties in August. Twenty-nine states saw some improvement in their stress scores from August to September.

Since the start of 2009, 12 states have improved their stress scores: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Vermont.

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Yuma Sun Staff Writer Joyce Lobeck contributed to this report. She can be reached at jlobeck@yumasun.com or 539-6853.