Yuma County is back in the number two spot on the Stress Index

After briefly dropping to ninth place on a list of the most stressed counties in the United States in March, Yuma County returned to the number two spot in April, according to the Associated Press' Stress Index.

The index calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. A higher score signifies more economic stress.

Under a rough rule of thumb, a county is considered stressed when its score exceeds 11. By that standard, about a quarter of the counties in the U.S. were stressed in April, down from about a third in March.

In April, Yuma County's score sat at 27.22. On the list, Yuma County is second only to neighboring Imperial County, which had a score of 31.33 in April.

“I have my suspicions,” said Yuma County administrator Robert Pickels, about the reason Yuma rose once again in the rankings.

“I think what it tells us is that there is a real inconsistency occurring with respect to the economic recovery. I think it is real sporadic and is not consistent throughout the country.”

The Yuma area is seeing unstable economic fluctuations, Pickels explained.

“Either the bankruptcies are down, the foreclosures are down or the unemployment is down. But, from month to month, it can go up and down and fluctuate, and so I think that is what we are seeing reflected in that stress index numbers.”

While county administration keeps a close eye on the stress index, the report is not the only source Pickels relies on.

“We look more at the individual statistics,” he said. “Unemployment is really the focus of our attention. We want to see more jobs created. People back at work means people are spending money and it is all interrelated. If they are at work, they are paying their mortgage and aren't having their homes foreclosed on, and they aren't filing bankruptcies because they are paying their bills.”

Yuma County usually lags behind other areas in the nation, both going into an economic recession and coming out of it, Pickels said, but will eventually climb back down the list out of the number two spot.

“I think it is inevitable. We will come out of that number two spot, but when is anybody's guess. I think as the overall economy continues to improve, and we catch up in Yuma County to where some of the other areas are, we will see our numbers greatly improved.”

In the rest of the country, economic stress fell to a two-year low in April, thanks to the strongest private-sector hiring in five years and a dip in bankruptcy filings, according to AP.

The improved picture for jobs and bankruptcy filings offset a slight rise in foreclosures.

The easing of stress was felt most in Midwestern and mid-Atlantic states. But conditions brightened throughout the country. More than 90 percent of the nation's 3,141 counties, not including Yuma County, were better off in April than in March.

The average county's Stress score was 9.8, the lowest since April 2009's score of 9.7. It was 10.5 in March and 11 in February. A year earlier, it was 10.5.

The nation's stress may have headed back up in May. A range of economic data showed the economy slowing last month, in part because of high gas prices. Consumers who have had to pay more for gas have had less money to spend on other goods and services — from furniture and appliances to restaurants and vacations.

Last week, the government said the economy added a scant 54,000 jobs in May, the poorest showing in eight months. And the unemployment rate edged up from 9 percent to 9.1 percent nationwide.

The question is whether the weakness will be a temporary setback, as was a similar economic slowdown last year, or something more chronic.

“We won't know for a few months,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “A lot will depend on whether gasoline prices moderate.”

Guatieri has downgraded his forecast for growth for 2011 to a modest 2.5 percent. That's weaker than last year's 2.9 percent increase, and it's below the 3.2 percent Guatieri was forecasting before gasoline surged to near $4 a gallon.

“It took a big bite out of people's pocket books and their psyche,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. “I think we will get back on track as the summer and fall progress, but that assumes that gasoline prices don't head higher.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.