Poll: Sheriff Joe best GOP bet for gov

PHOENIX — The best bet for Republicans to keep the governor's office would be to choose Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio as the party's nominee, a new statewide poll shows.

According to Rasmussen Reports, a head-to-head race between incumbent Republican Jan Brewer and presumptive Democratic nominee Terry Goddard would result in her ouster. The survey of 1,200 likely voters earlier this month found 44 percent of those asked favor Goddard, currently the state's attorney general, against 35 percent who said they would vote to give Brewer a term of her own.

Another 9 percent wanted someone else, with the balance undecided.

Treasurer Dean Martin, who has said he is considering entering the fray, does somewhat better, in a statistical dead heat with Goddard at 40 points for the Democrat and 38 for Martin.

But the 77-year-old Arpaio picked up the backing of 51 percent of those asked, against 39 percent for Goddard.

Arpaio has gained statewide attention for his high-profile "crime suppression sweeps,'' which the sheriff has acknowledged have as at least part of their goal to apprehend those not in the country legally.

Arpaio has continued those sweeps even after the U.S. Department of Homeland Security rescinded the agreement it had with him to let his deputies check the legal status of those they contact.

That stance has not hurt his popularity: 64 percent of those questioned said they back Arpaio's efforts to "work around federal law'' about who is empowered to detain illegal immigrants.

Conversely, Brewer's popularity may be hampered by opposition to hiking the sales tax, a cornerstone of the governor's plan to balance the current budget. Neither Arpaio nor Goddard has taken a position on the levy.

Arpaio said Monday the results are not surprising.

"I don't want to be egotistical,'' he told Capitol Media Services. "But I knew where the results would come out.''

But Arpaio, who was re-elected in 2008 to another four-year term and would have to resign to run for governor next year, was not making any commitments.

"I have the capability of raising the big bucks (for a campaign) very easily if I ever decided to run for governor."

Arpaio said that, given his high name identification, he would not need to make a decision until next spring. The deadline for filing nominating petitions is May 26.

Arpaio has toyed with the idea at least twice before, backing away each time. The sheriff said that, given his age, it is now or never.

"This will be my last hurrah if I wanted to address those problems'' the state has, he said.

The survey has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.