Survey shows Arizonans believe better economy to come

PHOENIX — For the first time in years, Arizonans believe that things are going to get better.

A new statewide Consumer Confidence Survey released Wednesday shows a sharp rise in the number of people who predict better economic conditions six months from now. The last time there was a significant uptick in that index was in early 2006.

Pollster Earl de Berge who conducts the regular survey for the Behavior Research Center said part of the reason for the change is the increase in positive economic news, including a rising stock market. But he said much of what makes up individual attitudes is based on each person's perception of their own situation.  

"It has a sensitivity to what people are talking about by people who are in the workplace every day, what's going on their company, whether or not things are better, whether or not there's more action, whether or not raises are coming, and so on,'' he explained.

"And so we have a tendency to think that there must be a lot of talk around the water cooler about improving conditions in the environments in which people are working.''

All that talk, said de Berge, is having an effect on perception.

For example, 33 percent now believe more jobs will be available six months from now, compared with 21 percent who expressed that same sentiment at the beginning of the year.

And 24 percent say they expect their family income to be higher in six months. That figure stood at only 18 percent in January, and de Berge said part of that is due to more positive economic news including a rising stock market. But he said much of what makes up individual attitudes about future economic condition directly reflects what people are hearing in the workplace.

But the index of future expectations, which now stands at 87.1, is still far below what it was before the recession hit when it hovered close to 100.

That rising optimism about future economic conditions, however, is not matched by what people think is going on right now.

A separate question in the survey, asking individuals to rate the current circumstances, found that only 14 percent rate current business conditions as good, compared with 48 percent who see them as bad.

That assessment was even more pronounced in questions about employment. Just 5 percent said jobs are plentiful, with 57 percent saying they are hard to get.

The survey is based on interviews with 800 adult heads of households. The latest one was conducted earlier this month and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Appraisal of present business conditions:
Assessment / 9-09 / 1-09 / 5-08
Good / 14% / 16% / 31%
Normal / 35% / 31/% / 41$
Bad / 48% / 47% / 25%
Not sure / 3% / 6% / 3%

Appraisal of present employment situation:
Assessment / 9-09 / 1-09 / 5-08
Jobs plentiful / 5% / 6% / 23%
Not so hard / 32% / 26% / 36%
Jobs hard to get / 57% / 60% / 30%
Not sure / 6% / 8% / 11%

Expectations for business conditions in six months:
Assessment / 9-09 / 1-09 / 5-08
Better / 44% / 24% / 28%
Same / 34% / 37% / 44%
Worse / 17% / 29% / 24%
Not sure / 5% / 10% / 4%

Expectations for employment in six months:
Assessment / 9-09 / 1-09 / 5-08
More jobs / 33% / 21% / 25%
Same / 38% / 30% / 38%
Fewer jobs / 24% / 40% / 30%
Not sure / 5% / 9% / 7%

Expectations for family income in six months:
Assessment / 9-09 / 1-09 / 5-08
Higher / 24% / 18% / 24%
Same / 62% / 67% / 66%
Lower / 12% / 14% / 8%
Not sure / 2% / 1% / 2%

— Source: Behavior Research Center

Consumer confidence — 09/24