Turkey Day food prices continue to climb

Turkeys may not fly. But the price tag for the centerpiece for the traditional Thanksgiving dinner continues to soar, driving up the cost of serving friends and family.

New figures from the Arizona Farm Bureau Federation show the cost of feeding a family of 10 this year will hit $52.81. That is not only up 3.2 percent from a year ago but nearly 35 percent higher than the 2006 dinner.

It also sets a record.

Julie Murphree, spokeswoman for the Farm Bureau, said much of the overall difference comes down to inflation, particularly as it relates to higher energy costs in the last two years. That has driven up not only the price tag for running equipment but what farmers pay for everything else, like feed.

Murphree said while fuel prices are dropping, there is a "lag time'' before that is reflected in costs to farmers - and, eventually, what consumers pay. She said those lower gasoline costs should eventually begin driving food prices down no later than the second quarter of next year.

Another factor could be the diminishing size of Arizona's already tiny turkey production industry.

The issue this year, as it was last year, is a simple one of supply and demand: There just aren't as many turkeys being raised in Arizona, with the closure of Young's Farm near Dewey at the end of 2006 essentially ending any significant turkey production in this state.

Nationwide, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that turkey production this year actually is down a bit, from nearly 271.7 million birds to less than 271.1 million.

But all that doesn't mean consumers actually will have to shell out the $1.49 a pound for turkeys that Farm Bureau shoppers found.

Murphree said her organization's volunteers go out each year a couple of weeks before Thanksgiving and record the prices being charged.

She noted, though, that many supermarkets offer one or more brands of turkeys as "loss leaders'' in the week leading up to Thanksgiving, selling them for below costs in hopes of pulling shoppers into the store to buy everything else. And chain stores also offer special deals to those who hold their "affinity'' cards.

For example, the Fry's chain is offering one line of birds at just 47 cents a pound.

The cost of most other items, however, continues to rise.

Pumpkin pie mix and the price of the pre-made shells both are up, as are sweet potatoes, whipping cream and the various little items necessary to finish dinner like coffee, onions and evaporated milk.

Fresh cranberries, however, are cheaper than last year, as are frozen green peas and stuffing mix.

Murphree said, though, that a homemade Thanksgiving dinner still remains a bargain at $5.28 a person. And she said that can be pared if hosts ask guests to bring one or more of the side dishes.

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ITEM / 2008 / 2007
Self-basting 16 lb. young tom turkey / $23.84 / $23.04
Cubed stuffing mix / $2.79 / 2.80
Pumpkin pie mix (30 oz.) / $3.01 / $2.47
9-inch frozen pie shell (2) / $2.67 / $2.12
3 lb. fresh sweet potatoes / $4.71 / $4.47
Enriched brown & serve rolls (12) / $1.99 / $1.99
Frozen peas (16 oz.) / $1.56 / $2.04
1 lb mixed celery and carrots / $1.11 / $0.99
1 gallon whole milk / $3.19 / $3.21
Cranberries (12 oz.) / $2.54 / $2.99
Half pint whipping cream / $2.12 / $1.99
Miscellaneous (onions, coffee, sugar, flour, evaporated milk,
butter) / $3.28 / $3.03

PRICE HISTORY:
Year / Arizona / National
2008 - $52.81 / $44.61
2007 - $51.14 / $42.26
2006 - $39.22 / $36.57
2005 - $37.69 / $36.78
2004 - $35.22 / $36.04
2003 - no Arizona survey / $36.28
2002 - $34.43 / $34.56
2001 - $34.05 / $35.04
2000 - $34.11 / $32.37
1999 - $33.82 / $33.83
1998 - $27.41 / $33.09
1997 - $26.14 / $31.75
1996 - $30.37 / $31.66
1995 - $28.68 / $29.64
1994 - $26.93 / $28.40
1993 - $24.99 / $27.49
Total figures may not always match tally of individual items due to rounding of fractional cents on average prices.

- Source: Arizona Farm Bureau