Independents could change tone of voting

The elections are always more interesting during presidential election years, but the next one in 2012 could have an added level of interest in Arizona.

That is because the makeup of the electorate is changing, as was reported by the Arizona Secretary of State last week.

More and more voters in Arizona and in Yuma County — as well as the nation as a whole — are abandoning the traditional two political parties in favor of being independent voters.
It is a trend that I have been following for some time — and have commented on previously — but a milestone has just been set here in Arizona.

Secretary of State Ken Bennett’s office reported that for the first time independent voters outnumbered one of the major parties — Democrats for the state as a whole and Republicans in Yuma County. Even more notable is the prediction that independent voters could outnumber both Democrats and Republicans by 2012.

The significance of this is that independents are exactly that — independent. They have no particular loyalty to candidates from either party. They look at the candidates — and how they measure up against their own particular political interests — rather than to which party they belong. A particular party’s philosophy may have no real meaning to them.

That’s a change. Traditionally, Americans have decided to either be a Democrat or a Republican for various reasons, ranging from that being the environment they grew up in to a deliberate decision on their part that one or the other closely aligned with their own views.
Sometimes they would only vote for candidates in their party — voting a “straight ticket.”

That has been changing dramatically in recent years, and I don’t think it is because people are different so much as that the political parties are not like they once were.

It used to be that the parties offered what was called the “big tent” — a wide range of people and views were welcome. This tended to lead to a more middle-of-the-road viewpoint among candidates — at least among winning candidates. They needed to appeal to many different types of people.

Now the parties tend to lean toward one extreme wing of the party or the other. Moderates and those who are not part of the “in” group feel alienated. The skewing of the parties leads to extreme positions and confrontation — something polls say voters don’t like to see in government.

The result, I think, is the independent movement we are seeing.

It has implications that are already beginning to be apparent. There are quick swings in support. One election it is Republicans, the next it can be the Democrats. Parties don’t count, candidates do — along with the current issues affecting the country. The era when one political party could control government for a decade seems to be over — a good thing, perhaps, in the view of many.

There is a complication, however, in the independent movement. Under our election process candidates are picked by the parties. The choices available to voters — including independents — mostly come from the two major parties. Independents are outside this system.

The question that remains to be answered — perhaps beginning in the next presidential election — is how the parties will react to the changing dynamic. Will they skew even more extreme as people leave to become independents or will the parties move to the center in an effort to try to pick up independent voters who can help them gain a majority?

My guess is they will become even more extreme unless changes are made to give independents more voice in which candidates get selected in the primary election system which is now controlled by the major parties.

Terry Ross is director of the Yuma Sun’s News and Information Center. E-mail him at tross@yumasun.com or phone him at 539-6870.