Accurate count of H1N1 cases isn't possible

The announcement of the death last week of a Yuma man from the newest strain of flu is a reminder that it is wrong to underestimate the seriousness of influenza, which in its various forms kills tens of thousands of people in the United States every year.

This death was notable because it was the first known one in Yuma County from complications from H1N1, also known as the swine flu, which has officially been designated as a pandemic by U.S. and world health authorities.

There have been nearly 70 confirmed cases of H1N1 in Yuma County since the outbreak started late last year and 2,263 confirmed cases in the state. But the reality is that the total number of H1N1 cases may never really be known.

That is because H1N1 has to be confirmed by tests from authorized laboratories and it is likely that many with mild symptoms, which has often happened here in the United States, never bother to get the necessary test.

In fact, U.S. health officials aren't even trying to do a full count of lab-confirmed cases anymore, basically saying it is pointless to count an inherently inaccurate number.

So the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now keeping track of H1N1 the same way it tracks regular influenza. According to Associated Press, it uses its own formula based on monitoring nine different factors ranging from the number of people who die with flu-like symptoms to counting influenza cases in selected cities. It is not exact but it gives a general picture.

Health officials say these estimates are good enough to track the course of the disease, but some critics question whether the impact of the H1N1 on specific demographic groups can be adequately monitored without having accurate counts.

The H1N1 pandemic, the first global one in 40  years, is likely to test the adequacy of the system. But the reality is that truly accurate overall totals are probably impossible, given that many people may never go to a doctor or get tested.

However, for those who have loved ones die from the disease, as has now happened in Yuma, there is no need to estimate the impact because they feel it in full.