How scientists reach consensus
I would like to respond to a statement in a Jan. 26 letter to the editor ("Why are issues being questioned?") about climate change. The writer stated, "If the scientists are confident they are right, why not openly debate the disputed issues identified by the producers of the documentary 'A Convenient Lie'? I want to believe that scientists really are interested in truth."
I think this is a common misconception among the public. I am a plant scientist and have 10 years of college and experience in the scientific field. What I have come to learn is that doing one or even several scientific experiments is not "truth." All it does is support or not support an educated guess.
Science is not as black and white as most people think. I could do an experiment and someone else can do a similar experiment and have the exact opposite results. There are many, many things that can affect your results (how you take your data, how you ask your questions, even what statistical program you use and how you interpret the numbers it spits out).
It is a lot easier than some people think to put bias your results, especially when studying such complex systems as climate.
The big question then is: So how do we know anything?
First there are quality controls within the scientific community that are in place to determine ethical research. Secondly, to determine something is happening many, many scientific experiments need to generally indicate the same thing until there is a consensus among a large group of research.
Within the scientific community there is a general consensus, with the support of the majority of the research, that global warming is happening. There is also a majority consensus that it is is human induced.
But what we are having a hard time determining now is what does that mean? What is going to happen? On that question there seems to be a lot less consensus.
By the way, contrary to what the letter writer said, it doesn't cost $50,000 to put up a solar system. My dad installed one for $9,000. Not only does he not pay for electricity, APS pays him now for adding electricity to the grid.
I'm saving up for one, and my next car will probably be an electric car. You don't have to pay for gas and don't have to pay for electricity.
Right now, I have a hybrid and go 430 miles for $23, which equals to $50 a month with a 22-mile commute. (Note: My car had 20,000 miles on it and cost $18,300, less then an SUV of comparable mileage.)
I also don't use my dryer and use the unused water when warming up the shower for my garden.
JESSICA DELPH, Yuma
